How seriously troubled is Sentinel, the FBI's digital case file and investigative lead management program?

As reported in this issue, the FBI is halting work on the third and fourth phases of Sentinel, its four-phase effort to throw its information management practices into the 21^st century.

Even if the cause of this delay is minor, as FBI officials say it is, anything that hints of IT problems at the FBI provokes bad memories of Virtual Case File.

VCF, of course, is Sentinel's failed predecessor program, a disaster on which the government spent $105 million for naught, and which died an agonizing death in 2005. Cynics think we're headed for a sequel, especially given the FBI's previous propensity to throw good money after bad when it comes to failing IT programs.

For a sense of how well Sentinel is doing, let's consider a few facts from a November 2009 Justice Department inspector general report (.pdf):

• The FBI has already dipped into its Sentinel risk management reserve. It did so in part to offset an $18 million cost increase to phase 2 in 2009 from changing the overall price tag of $451 million.
• The FBI already re-baselined its schedule and budget, in November 2007.
• Phase 1, the only phase completed so far, does not replace the Automated Case System, the antiquated case management system Sentinel is meant to supplant. Phase 1 is a web-based system riding on top of ACS, sort of the way early versions of Windows rode on top of DOS.
• Key positions are missing from the FBI's program management office. Some positions, such as an engineer, were eliminated.
• Turnover within the program management office has increased.

Strategic reserves at least  partially spent, an already re-baselined program falling further behind schedule and some of the toughest work still left undone: Frankly, it's too early to say whether Sentinel is on a VCF-like path to failure. But the evidence certainly doesn't look promising. - Dave