Evidence suggests that "unknown foreign entities" have probed computer networks controlling the U.S. electrical grid, which would become a target during a cyber attack, according to a paper from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Electrical power systems have long been targets, writes James Andrew Lewis, director of CSIS's Technology and Public Policy Program. But, now that Internet protocol commercial systems run the electrical grid, they can be a low cost target made from a long range, Lewis writes.

Back in 2007, testers from the Idaho National Labs--in what's been called the Aurora Generator Test--staged a hacking experiment in which they remotely changed the operating cycle of a generator, causing it to fail and emit smoke, Lewis notes.

However, despite likely foreign probes of the power grid, it's unlikely that foreign powers have left behind a cyber time bomb ready for activation on command, Lewis says.

"A 'time bomb' planted in January could not reliably be expected to work in March or April," he writes. "Why risk planting something that might not work a month or so later?"

The fact that the probes have not led to a hacker-provoked blackout suggests that non-state actors don't yet have the capacity to penetrate into the grid. If they had managed to penetrate into it, they would seek to cause immediate destruction.

However, that doesn't mean they won't learn. And in any case, the American grid would be a target in a future conflict, Lewis writes.

"The United States cannot safely assume that it is not vulnerable to cyber attacks on its electrical grid, and should consider how it might improve its ability to defend these networks," he concludes.

For more:
- check out the CSIS paper

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