Cascading effects whose true extent is yet is unknown caused by a delay in rollout of a key software project have already begun to reverberate within the Federal Aviation Administration's portfolio of air traffic modernization projects known as NextGen, according to the Government Accountability Office.

In a report dated Feb. 16, the GAO notes that several NextGen programs have dependencies on En Route Automation Modernization software, a $2.4 billion program to replace a three-decade old long-range radar tracking system known as Host. Once touted as an agency success, ERAM has in recent years run into troubles, with cost overruns likely to reach at least $330 million and the completion date extended from December 2010 to August 2014, according to FAA-accepted estimates.

Due to ERAM holdups, the FAA has already delayed a NextGen effort called Data Communications by about 6 months and also delayed assigning a baseline to the second segment of the System Wide Information Management, the GAO report says. DataComm seeks to replace voice communications between pilot and air traffic controller with text; SWIM is an information technology infrastructure modernization project that in its second segment plans to deploy a service oriented architecture.

However, the longer-term effects of those initial delays "are unclear," the GAO says, stating that some SWIM capabilities could end up being delayed for years and that other projects dependent in turn on SWIM could likewise be late.

The FAA has yet to establish an integrated master schedule for the entire portfolio of NextGen projects and although it is developing one, the GAO also casts doubt on the agency's ability to do so, since the individual program schedule for key NextGen efforts have proven unreliable.

Cost estimates have also been a weak point for the agency, with estimates falling short of what the GAO says is reliable. In some cases, in order to stay within the original cost estimate, FAA managers resorted to reducing the scope of some projects, GAO auditors add.  

For more:
- download the report, GAO-12-223 (.pdf)

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